Today I read in the Jerusalem Post that Hamas believes that within a few days, war will break out with Israel. Hours later, I’m reading in the Times of Israel that the IDF’s Chief of Staff, Gadi Eisenkott, warns that the possibility of a war with Gaza would be growing. What is going on?
The situation is heating up and in order to prepare their narrative, Hamas informed the world, that they believed, Israel would start a war in the course of a military exercise in its south. But this is just a smoke screen to divert western audience from what is really going on in the region.
Hamas and Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, the ISIS on the Sinai, managed to maneuver each other into a bloody war which was declared by Ansar Beit al-Maqdis with a gory video showing the execution of a Hamas operative. Ansar accused Hamas of having failed in preventing Donald Trump from acknowledging Yerushalayim as Israel’s capital.
Actually this means something different. Hamas didn’t want to start a war over this and ISIS is telling Hamas that they are weak, if they don’t and ISIS doesn’t want weak partners. Hence they made a statement and executed one of these Hamas sissies.
So Hamas allowed one of its proxies, the Islamic Jihad, to fire a few missiles at Israel and in return Israel bombed a few Hamas sites in Gaza. Well, this doesn’t appease Ansar Beit al-Maqdis. They are furious about Hamas. And this puts Hamas between a rock and a hard place. Ansar fighters are only about 1200, but they are furious and fearless warriors. They are much more effective than anything Hamas can mobilize.
Ansar, on the other side, will never admit, that they suffered a few heavy losses through IAF bombings which Israel is carrying out on behalf of Egypt, because the Egyptian security establishment is undercut with Muslim extremists from the Muslim Brotherhood and they pass on secret information to Ansar Beit al-Maqdis. Intelligence analysts meanwhile are absolutely sure that this is how Ansar managed to smuggle a bomb on a Russian passenger jet over Sinai and how they could know about the secret visit of the Egyptian minister for the interior at a Sinai air-base and attack his helicopter with a Russian Kornet anti-tank missile.
Hamas on the other side is on Iran’s pay-role and Iran is telling Hamas what to do. This development was foreseeable. The two, Iran and Hamas, were very close before the Syrian civil war broke out and because Hamas sided with the Syrian rebels, Iran froze the relationship with Hamas and stopped the financial and technical support. But the two need each other. Hamas needs Iran’s support and Iran needs Hamas to orchestrate a three-front-war against Israel. Iran want’s to prepare all that until Hezbollah is replenished and ready after its long participation in the Syrian civil war.
Many indicators suggest that Hezbollah is closing in and about to reach that state. They are preparing day and night and as Israel is building a barrier on Israeli soil against attacks from Lebanon. Several news outlets reported Hezbolla’s blatant threat over the border fence and how Israel reacted.
Iran seems to be very sure, that European countries like France, UK, Germany, Sweden, Belgium….etc will take sides with Hamas and Hezballah, because they have built up large militant Muslim minorities and many of them are armed. In Berlin for instance, the Muslims in Neukölln and Wedding have more arms than the whole Berlin police force and the Muslims have piled up many automatic weapons, predominantly AK-47s. We find similar situations in Frankfurt, the Ruhr, Munich…. and of course in Belgium and France. The situation there is threatening and leftist European governments will be very likely to appease their militant Muslim minorities and rather throw Israel under the bus.
Currently, Israel has only one reliable ally and it is not clear, how strong the U.S. support would be in case of war. So the Iranians are working towards a casus belli – a reason for a war – and it looks as if they were closing in.