Tevet 11, 5775
Imagine “extremely ideal” left-wing and right-wing candidates running for election in Israel. Imagine, they campaign for doing the somewhat extreme and finally get really elected with a broad majority? I will push these two candidates to the edge to see what would happen.
Our two candidates will represent totally diametric positions. During campaign
- the right-wing candidate promises to annex the Yesha and next time Hamas fires only a single missile, he would not rest until Hamas is destroyed.
- the left-wing candidate promises instead, he would make peace with the Palestinians. He would give away the Yesha, give away the eastern part of Yerushalayim and he would open the borders to Gaza and reach out for peace with Hamas …..
In my first scenario the right wing candidate would get a broad majority and he would be able to establish the next Israeli government.
Already before the government is established, Western diplomats would visit him to tell him, what they think about his vision of annexing the Yesha. They are drawing a bleak picture of political and economic isolation. They promise tough sanctions and while the new PM is establishing his government, former western allies put crucial military supplies on hold. Vital parts for Iron Dome, David’s sling, the fleet of Jet-fighters and resupply for artillery shells and bombs no longer would be shipped due to administrative and logistical problems. Of course the Western allies promise to solve these problems asap, but they also ask for patience and understanding because they really hit a bottleneck.
In Western countries left-wing and Arab protesters hit the street and demand far reaching sanctions against Israel and a few parliaments in Europe are already discussing sanctions against Israel in the event, Israel really would push forward.
In the meantime Abbas and Haniyeh would lean back. They don’t need to fire a single missile and they don’t need to call for a “day of rage”.
At the same time Israel’s left would hit the streets in Tel Aviv to protest against the government. They would receive tons of solidarity addresses from western leftist groups and western protesters would travel to Tel Aviv to join the protests.
The housing minister now announces the construction of 5000 new units in Area E1 between Yerushalayim and Ma’ale Adumim. This leads to a major outcry in the western world and while practically everybody misses his announcement for the construction of another 5000 units for Arabs near Jericho the Arab League addresses the UN security council with a draft resolution that condemns Israel’s recent actions and clearly calls Israel an apartheid state. Next the new housing minister orders the demolition of illegally built Arab houses in Area B and C. At the same time Gen. Gadi Eizenkot visits the UK for talks about military strategies in the ME and co-operation between the two nations armed forces. During his stay in the UK the police arrests him because a Muslim citizen of the UK pressed charges against him on crimes against humanity. Eizenkot sits in Jail for a few days until he finally is released and leaves the UK. Of course the government of the United Kingdom apologizes for the inconveniences but doesn’t miss to explain that the United Kingdom was a state under the rule of law and the government (only) stepped in because it didn’t find it opportune to keep Eizenkot under custody and to start investigations.
The new Israeli PM finally gets the message and backpedals on his promise of annexation. The new government from then on will be busy to contain the already incurred damage.
After a few weeks of major western diplomatic initiatives, he would sit together with Abbas or another terrorist and Israel, in an “act of good will, would release another 500 terrorists, many of which with blood on their hands. With a first batch, Marwan Barghouti would be released, too.
Wow, that was pretty ugly, wasn’t it?
Let’s see, if our “extremely ideal” left-wing PM would do better?
Already before taking office, the new PM would be lauded by western countries, once he established his new government, he first would cut the defence budget, starts new constructions in the Negev and halts all constructions in the Yesha. He meets with Abu Mazen and both are visibly happy about their talks. Both sides establish delegations to negotiate the the creation of a Palestinian state in the West Bank. The world applauds!
In the meantime a few missiles and mortar shells land in the south of Israel. But the government blames this on lone wolves and hopes, that the Hamas leadership will restore order quickly. As an act of good will, the blockade against Gaza is eased and an uncontrolled stream of goods flows into Gaza. Also Gazans will be able to cross into Israel more easily and even take a job. After a few days Hamas executes five Arabs in the Gaza for collaborating with the enemy (they tried to find a job in Israel) This is sobering, but Western media don’t report the incidents.
The Israeli government starts to cut funds for the settlements in the West Bank and makes the life for Jews in the area increasingly hard. In the same turn the government encourages these people to move to the Negev. But the government forgot, that there is no work in the Negev. Still the government has the problem of growing unemployment in the south and it’s only becoming a little better by the beginning constructions of new Negev-settlements.
As the conditions in the West-Bank turn to the worse, protesters from the settlements hit the streets of Yerushalayim. They protest against the massive budget cuts for education and health care in the region and Western media report about right-wing religious extremists protesting against peace with the Palestinians.
Western foreign ministers, prime ministers and presidents start to visit the new PM to show how the world appreciates a “peaceful” Israel, while a few more missiles from Gaza land in the Negev. One hits a construction site for a new Negev-settlement, kills two Arab workers and severely injures four more.
The negotiations for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank are progressing and the Israeli government is hurrying ahead to make the Yesha Judenrein. In the meantime, countless stabbing attacks in the east of Jerusalem make life for Jews harder there.
Terror doesn’t stop.
Meanwhile Marwan Barghouti reached to the top of the Palestinian authority. Again, there were no elections, but this is not so unusual in modern Arab democracies. The world lauds Barghouti as a declared man of peace. Western media let us know that the new moderate leader represents a gleam of hope for the Palestinian people.
I am sorry, it just nauseates me…….
I forgot to tell about the continued firing of missiles and mortar shells from Gaza to the south, but the Israeli government keeps calm. Even after the first casualties in Sderot the government stays firm on its path to peace.
After about two years the Jewish population in the West Bank begins to dwindle. Hundreds of families move to the Negev, but there they meet joblessness, poverty and social decline. Western media explain us, that the right-wing religious extremists who moved here from their illegal settlements, just don’t work.
As the new Palestinian state gets shape there still is no trace of a peace treaty. What we see is an increasingly Judenrein West Bank, increasing terror and no peace.
Marwan Barghouti officially declares the independence of the State of Palestine and applies admission as an ordinary member state to the UN.
Barghouti no longer needs more negotiations with Israel. His process of state building accelerates even without cooperation. Next he establishes the Palestinian armed forces and of course diplomatic relations with the Arab states, but he doesn’t establish diplomatic ties with Israel.
Just like we’ve seen it in Gaza after the Israeli withdrawal, other – less “moderate” – groups also establish more and more in the West Bank and they follow a more extreme agenda than the “moderate” Barghouti. While Barghouti tries to intensify the ties with Jordan, these groups intensively work towards their armed struggle against the Zionist entity. The number of missile attacks, bomb attacks in public places in Israel and abductions, are increasing.
The leftist government now closes the borders towards this Palestinian state and establishes new checkpoints. Western diplomats decry this as not very helpful and the Western press describes this as a backslide into the dark Zionist apartheid politics that they had believed to have been overcome.
In the meantime the Jewish population in the West Bank dwindled to less than the half of what it was before while the number of jobless in the Israelis south is skyrocketing.
The Palestinian state is established, there is no peace, the blame game is going on, the leftist government did not deliver on social and economic fields.
The trouble is, that a right-wing government will not perform as right-wingers wish. They would be more moderate, even though the leftists still would brand them as extreme. In contrast, the left can do all damage it finds appropriate and the international community would even help to do more damage.
It is not clear, if a left wing PM really would act on the core issues of “making peace”, but to me it is clear, that there will be no peace, because it takes two and the Arab leaders don’t want to make peace with Israel as a Jewish state. They can imagine a state of Israel under the rule of Muslim Arabs after their demand to assimilate millions of stateless Arabs by Israel would be met. They just want as much land as they can get peacefully. They won’t change their agenda and they won’t change their charters. The Jews in Israel will remain to be their enemy #1 and they will not stop to fight us.
Just like the leftists so easily call someone right-wing just because the person is not a leftists, I prefer to distinguish between right and wrong rather than right and left.