Sh’vat 9th, 5775
Again we are reading in the news, that deterrence is ending, but can we really talk about deterrence, if there is only calm as long as the enemy is rebuilding its military capacities?
The Islamic/Arab Vision is clear: Israel shall be annihilated. They tried again and again but never succeeded. The fact, that they didn’t succeed never meant, that they were deterred. They only pulled back to change their strategies, to sharpen their swards, to lobby Western opinion.
So we know their vision, but over decades we have seen them fiddling around, but they never developed a real strategy. Actually, there was a lot of frustration on the Arab side, that they couldn’t succeed and in return, they carried a political problem around. Finally they also wanted to solve the problem, but they never wanted to pay the bill.
This changed, after the Mullah-Regime in Iran gained strength. These guys have a very clear vision and they have set up organizations dedicated to materialize these visions. Over the three decades we never have seen the Mullahs pulling back. They always only tried to learn from a failure and returned even more malicious.
After that operation, Hamas was still thinking. They know what they want, but at this time, they didn’t know how to achieve it. The same with Iran. They continuously make it clear that they want to annihilate Israel, but at that time, they didn’t have an appropriate strategy in place.
At this time, it might have made the impression, that there was deterrence, but lets be honest: Did we see anything become better? No! We only saw Hamas and Iran working on a better strategy and on better weapons. They improved their weapons and they particularly improved the logistics to supply the Hamas military machine with grenades, missiles, guns…
At that time, Hamas was an annoyance. Okay, it was dangerous and unbearable to the people in the south, but it was no threat to Israel. Qassam rockets and mortar shells don’t reach far. Still the government could play it cool and only launch limited operations.
Hamas and Iran drew only one lesson: They weren’t a threat and they needed to work to change this – and they did!
This time Hamas managed to be much more than an annoyance. They expanded their reach, they are able to fire thousands of missiles
they are even able play Israel on the political field. Finally Israel needs to end the operation because the U.S. has a new president who turns out to be a hidden adversary of Israel.
Again Hamas turns out to be more aggressive and more dangerous than last time.
This is all we see after a period of calm ends: It has become worse!
Operation Pillar of Defence cannot start for quite a while, because the U.S. and Germany are having election campaigns and both government pressure Israel to keep restraint, because the two Administrations (Obama and Merkel) don’t need this issue during their campaign. This leads to around 2,000 missiles fired into Israel from Gaza without real consequences. Only mid of November 2012 Israel can strike back and Obama and Merkel have no means of pressure against Israel left,
again, Israel cannot finish the job. Again, IDF falls short from doing real harm to Hamas.
Here we see it very clear:
This time Israel really tried to make a statement. IDF leveled Shuja’iyya, up to 100.000 Gazans lost their homes respectively now are living in damaged homes. IDF inflicted substantial damage to Hamas infrastructure,
All we see is that Hamas is intensifying their efforts to rebuild their military capacities. Hamas dosen’t give a shit on the hardship the average Gazans suffered. They are testing new missiles with longer range so that they may be able to reach Haifa the next time.
Why Haifa? Because of the nitro-chemical factories there. One hit could spell a massive disaster to the Area. Israel needs this factories for her military capabilities. nitro-chemical complexes are crucial to produce explosives like TNT, RDX, HMX etc.
In the northern theatre we see more levelheaded adversaries. After the last passage of arms – nine years ago – Hezballah and Iran continuously have been working on building a more capable military force. They have taken lots of time to think about their shortcomings during the 2006 war and their answer is more missiles and even more missiles and a sufficient air defence. They know that they cannot counter IAF with an own airforce.
This is the only deterrence Israel managed to install during the last fourty years: The air battle between Syria and IAF left a persistent impression to our adversaries.
But in the northern theatre we see an adversary with growing military capacities, with tens of thousands of missiles (and we have to expect, volleys of missiles which will overwhelm our missile defence, no matter how much we install) and we see battle hardened troops.
Once these troops return from the Syrian civil war – and this will happen in the not so far future – we will see a problem, that many of these men will impose a big social problem to Lebanese society. They lived in war and we may expect that they live for war. The returning Hezballah fighters will press for a new war against Israel. After a possible victory over IS they will have the self confidence that they will also be able to win against Israel and they have a big advantage: They don’t care for the Geneva conventions and they know that only Israel will be held liable for violations of these conventions. Nobody will hold them accountable for even the worst violations.