The perspective of a future war in the West Bank

Tevet 8, 5775

“point bleak” (sorry no typo) – Playing the scenario of a Palestinian State in the Westbank that would be at war with us

To make it clear from the beginning: This tragic state would lack every property of a state laid down in the Montevideo-Convention¹.

Article 1

The state as a person of international law should possess the following qualifications:

(a) a permanent population;
(b) a defined territory;
(c) government; and
(d) capacity to enter into relations with the other states.

-> a) The Palestinian Authority deliberately refuses to acknowledge Arabs who are living in Camps like Jenin as future citizens. It is their intention to force Israel to absorb millions of stateless Arabs instead. Of course Israel cannot and will do so. As long as the Issue of Arab statelessness is unresolved, such an Arab State of Palestine would always miss to meet (a).
-> b) The Palestinian Authority always has been unable to reach an agreement with Israel on territory. There have been sensible approaches to solve the issue of land, but the representatives of the PA refused to discuss any of them. The always only presented their views and demands and demanded Israel to swallow.
-> c) Such a state wouldn’t have a government. Instead the two parties Hamas and Fatah are de facto and de jure in the state of civil war.
-> d) The virtual Arab state of Palestine would not be able to enter into diplomatic relations with its most important neighbour – Israel – unless their representatives have ended the state of war.

And even worse, despite the forced willingness of Israel to continue, with the PA’s statehood bid at the united nations, the core of the Oslo Accords² would be irreversibly rotten, because it was the intention of all sponsors and Yitzhak Rabin to reach a peaceful solution to a problem, that was immanently irresolvable.
Why irresolvable?
Because it takes two!
The true sponsor was aware of this problem, at least until Barack Obama became the 44th U.S. President. He didn’t start to deal with the Middle East conflict out of awareness, but he had an agenda.
The wannabe sponsors of the Oslo Accords always turned a blind eye to the Arab attitude towards the accords, even though it became all to clear with the 2nd Intifada in 2000. The ordinary consumer of Western mainstream media probably wouldn’t have noticed it, but foreign policy experts around the world always knew it that there was a diametrical difference between the facts on the ground ans what the Arab leaders told the world about the conflict.

We see it every day: When the Arabs in Gaza fire missiles they blame Israel for seeing themselves forced to be so aggressive and the European goody to shoes “believe” them even though Hamas made it very clear in its charter. Of course the Leaders of European countries know it better, but they see themselves under internal pressure to act against better judgement.

The Arab leaders are very aware of this situation and they invested heavily into creating it (The demographics of the Muslim minorities in Europe – to come soon) But understanding this situation will not help Israel to resolve it unless Israel isn’t able and willing to make a few clear cuts.

The United Nations now have a unique chance to tell the Arab world, that they need to move in order to gain something. If the UNGA rejected the resolution, it would force the Arabs back to the negotiating table, thus creating a unique chance, that this time they will really negotiate and not only demand. The chances are bleak, that this will ever happen. Once again the UN will make things worse and miss one of the few slim chances to really build peace.

But this Utopia. The United Nations are a club where nations are supporting their individual egoistic interests. Small countries are hoping for donations from Arab oil exporting countries and for support in their causes. Diplomats at the United Nations are not voting in favour or against a resolution because of their country’s conviction, but as a result of a long and intense bargaining process.

It is not Abu Mazen who did the bargaining. It was the Arab League. This Organization wrote the resolution draft and their diplomats tried to persuade as many countries as possible probably using a lot of economic attractants to make these countries see their individual advantage the greater good than peace. At the bottom line the perspective is clear: Arab countries are trying to remove Israel from the landscape. They act more silently and more clandestine than Iran, but they persue the same goal. For a little nation in the Pacific Ocean it is dull if Israel will drown with them or not. To them it will not make a difference if a country will drown sea of brutality of in salt water. For Russia it will be more interesting what attitude the Arab League takes towards Syria and if they can sell nuclear technology and power plants to Iran. And Arab nations will offer Russia ease on OPEC policies on it’s stance towards Ukraine while they will offer European countries to try to influence Russia on this conflict, if they voted in favour of Palestinian statehood……… Countless haggling are going on behind the scene and peace in the Middle East is the least important consideration the countries are making.

Furthermore since the end of WWII European countries have built up significant Muslim minorities. While Arab countries deliberately did nothing to solve the problem of Arab statelessness European countries also did nothing about it but absorbing all these people (Germany is an exception due to its migrant worker problem) France and UK caused a big part of their Muslim migrant problem through their colonial past but this is past, the Muslim migrant problem has gained a momentum that has become independent from these historic developments. Today European countries are confusing refugees with asylum seekers.

And these Muslim minorities live in their own splendid isolation and from there they advocate their way of life with all might you can imagine. Countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait invested vast amounts of money to print millions of Quran volumes and to pay all the salafists who stood on European streets for many months to distribute the Quran for free. In contrast to the U.S. in Europe lobbyist aren’t registered and this opens the floodgates to corruption. And all these developments go hand in hand with a never treated anti-Semitic sentiment in European countries.

It is fairly obvious: While the statehood bid will fail in the UNSC due to the U.S. vetoing it, it will probably succeed in the UNGA. The recently changed language in the resolution draft bears witness to Arab confidence in their success at the UNGA.

And from there – how will we go ahead?

Will any stateless Arab be less stateless, if s/he owns the passport of a country that doesn’t exist in reality?
Will any of the stateless Arabs who found refuge in a camp like Jenin even get such a passport since the PA refuses to acknowledge them as “Palestinians” but uncompromisingly demands Israel to absorb millions of these prople?

Mahmound Abbas already announced that the PA will cut all relations with Israel if the statehood bid fails. Well for the time being it probably will fail in the UNSC. His true intentions are unclear, for sure he doesn’t care for the wellfare of his people.
Now that Abbas has become as fantastically rich as Yassir Arafat he realized, that he will not be able to take all the money with him to hell. He wants a better place in the history books. Until now he always was in the shadow of Yassir Arafat. He wants to change this and become known as the leader who reached independence for a Palestinian state. Like practically all other Arab leaders he doesn’t give a shit for his people – he never did. His perverse wealth is a result of corruption. He and his cronies from Fatah embezzled billions of Western aid to finance terror and their own wealth.

And from there we go ahead.
So peace is not an option – it never was.
The goal is to get Israel out of the West Bank. The terrorist leaders (Mahmoud Abbas is the head of Fatah) will try to get sanctions imposed upon Israel if she doesn’t disengage from Yehuda and Shomron by a deadline by the year 2017 to be set by the draft resolution. They hope for an automatism that will bring Israel to her knees and force her out of the land they demand.

Once this is accomplished, there is reason to believe, that we will see the same problems we have seen after Israels disengagement from the Gaza. We will not see less terror – we will see an asymmetric war against Israel which will be waged against all conventions and rules. In order to gain a little more rear Israel bould better act today than tomorrow and gives them [the Arabs] a big junk of the West Bank. This is not to appease them, but it would be a bargaining chip if they won’t get everything. It would bring two advantages to Israel:

– more security for the narrow strip of land between the West Bank and the coast- it would be a bargaining chip to implement the Liberman-Plan³.

Dar al-Hudna⁴

Today many politicians may not want to discuss this plan, but soon they will feel a pressure to implement it for security reasons only. There is reason to believe the Arab triangle will turn out to be the fifth column in the war against Israel. And the war is inevitable since the plain existence of a Jewish state is considered an aggression against Islam. This narrative was presented to the world for decades. The Jews were the aggressors of Islamist and Arab atrocities against indigenous Arab Jews. This is a narrative Europeans war only to willing to listen to, as it eases their own conscience on Jews. The perpetrators of Jihad played their victims to be the real aggressors. To put it in the terms of what we have seen in Syria and Iraq in 2014: It’s the raped female Yazidi sex slave⁵ own fault, since she is Harbi.

The Arab leaders will do their utmost to wage an offensive Jihad against against kuffār. It’s their sacred duty, since they believe they have the only true believe. They see two choices for us:
– live under the Dhimma⁶or
– be subject to Harb (war)⁷
Since Jews in Israel don’t live under the Dhimma, they are subject to war and must be fought until there is peace under the terms of Jihad.

Arab countries and Iran are doing a lot to enable and empower Dar al-Hudna in the region widely known as Palestine since it is their sacred duty.
Whatever happens: Either we will see much more terror by the stateless Arabs or we will see another full scale war.

The prospects of a full scale war with an Arab state in the West Bank might be more attractive to Israel. We must not forget, that there is a sense of affiliation between the stateless Arabs in the West Bank and Jordan. It always was, because they actually are one people throughout the Arab world. They are only a Palestinian people when it is practical to make their cause for the land. But often enough they stress the Arab cause, the Islamic cause, their Arab roots and their affiliation to the Arab people.

If this affiliation constitutes we might see a development similar to what we have seen with the annexation of the CIS-Jordan by Trans-Jordan in 1949 (in violation of intl. law). Suddenly they all became Jordanians and the Arabs in the West Bank really considered themselves as Jordanians. King Hussein of Jordan stripped them of their citizenship in 1988. Many – if not most – of them [those who had Jordanian citizenship and their descendants] still consider themselves Jordanians. There is reason to believe that an Arab state in the West Bank will try to become part of Jordan again.

If war breaks out under such conditions and Israel would be victorious, she should do her utmost to expel the Arab population from Palestine into Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Egypt and if it was only for the reason to gain a more sustainable territory and to improve her ability to defend her territorial integrity. This wouldn’t be a moral problem, since most of them originated there⁸.

No matter how we play these scenarios, one thing that we don’t want to happen, will happen. There will be war and Israel better prepares for this situation. We have tried to gain peace for centuries and there is no reason to give up our attempts to reach peace with our neighbours. Unfortunately chances to accomplish real peace and a fruitful coexistence with these neighbours are bleak.
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1) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montevideo_Convention
http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Montevideo_Convention
2) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oslo_Accords
3) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lieberman_Plan
4) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divisions_of_the_world_in_Islam#Dar_al-Hudna
5)http://www.memrijttm.org/islamic-state-isis-releases-pamphlet-on-female-slaves.html#_edn1
6) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhimmi
7) Unfortunately the English Wikipedia is very unclear and incomplete when it comes to describing the status of Harbi. There are a few important things to know before you bring yourself into the danger of Harb:
– Harbi don’t have rights. They don’t even have a right to live – even outside the Islamic sphere of power.
– Harbi can be killed (see Banu Qurayza http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banu_Qurayza and Quran 47:4, 2:191, 4:89 – remember the bitter civil war in South Sudan and in Darfur with hundrets of thousands of casualties and the world did almost nothing)
– Harbi can be enslaved (remember the poor Yazidi women – see Banu Qurayza)
– Harbi can be expelled/displaced (see Banu Nadir http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banu_Nadir and the Quran sura 59)
– The Harbi’s property can be considered loot
– enslaved Harbi-women can be taken as concubines because through the looting og these women under Islamic law their marriages are immanently canceled – annulled!
Harbi can get around this by converting to Islam.
8) During the Arab-Jewish civil war (1947/11/30 – 1948/04/14) thousands of Arabs infiltrated into Palestine from their Arab home countries to fight for the Arab cause. They had children and under the usual citizenship laws the mother doesn’t count, when it comes to citizenship. The Fathers had to register their children in their home countries but they didn’t. While the fathers still might have had a valid citizenship of Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Saudi Araib, Iraq….. there children ended up in statelessness. Formally these children should be Egyptisans, Syrians… etc but defacto all these countries are happy to have these millions of stateless as a means of pressure against Israel.